11
Jan
2008
NFL Divisional Playoff Previews
Seattle @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Lambeu Field. January 12th. 30 degrees with snow showers. Playoff game. Brett Favre.
I should conclude my preview of this game by just pasting those 5 statements over and over, but I will elaborate for those who are not familiar with the point I’m trying to make. Seattle is not going to go into Lambeu field with their non existent run offense and beat Brett Favre in a playoff game, especially while it is snowing. You think Matt Hasslebeck is going to be able to throw all over that Green Bay secondary that features Charles Woodson and Al Harris? I don’t. You think Shaun Alexander and Co. will be able to muster up much of a run game at Green Bay, after they couldn’t do it against Washington in Seattle? I don’t.
There is no question that Seattle’s front four is impressive. Patrick Kerney is a monster. I’ll be honest; I didn’t think he was AS good as he looked against Washington last Saturday. But let’s not forget that disrupting the game of Brett Favre is not the same thing as disrupting the game of Todd Collins, with all due respect. Throw in the fact that Green Bay running back, Ryan Grant, has been as good as anyone in the league as of late, and you’re looking at a pretty big problem. He has amassed 770 yards on 141 carries over the past eight games. That comes to a 5.4 yards per carry average.
I’ll put it as simple as I can. Green Bay’s young defense (youngest in the league) will outplay Seattle’s old and talent lacking offense. Seattle’s young defense will play well against Green Bay’s offense, but not well enough to hold them under 20 points. I foresee Green Bay feeding off of the Packer faithful early, jumping ahead in the first quarter, and never looking back.
Final Score
Seattle 13
Green bay 24
Jacksonville @ New England (-13.5)
All week long, I have heard nothing but praise for Jacksonville and how they are the team that has what it takes to knock off the big bad wolf. They have the dual running threat. They have the quarterback that doesn’t make mistakes. They have the front four that can put pressure on Brady and leave 7 others to congest the passing lanes. People. There is a reason Vegas has set them as 14 point underdogs.
Everything that we have heard about how good Jacksonville is, the Patriots heard too. Everything that we, in our coaching genius minds, have come up with to beat the Pats; the Patriots heard too. All this water cooler talk, “Yeah Jim to beat the Patriots, the Jags will keep Brady and Moss off the field by running Taylor and Jones-Drew effectively and the Jax defense will get enough stops because that front four is going to harass Tom Brady. Yep, this is the week the Pats fall.”
Bull.
The Patriots are going to win and they will win big; here’s why. They will have an answer for the two headed monster that is Taylor & Jones-Drew just like Pittsburgh did. Do you know how many yards the two of them got combined on the ground? 77. Do you know WHY Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh on the road? It wasn’t because of their formula for success. It was because of a 96 yard kick return by Jones-Drew and two interceptions by Mathis. THAT is why they won. All of the things people have said the Jaguars will do against the Patriots is the same stuff they failed to do against the Steelers. David Garrard, the mistake free quarterback, made mistakes. He didn’t even complete 10 passes. Think about that for a moment. 9 completions in 4 quarters means slightly more than 2 per 15 minutes. The passing game failed. The running game failed. So now what makes you think that they will suddenly hit on all cylinders against New England? Oh, and that front four of the Jaguars. Yeah, they are pretty good. But that defense gave up 29 points to Pittsburgh, most of them in the second half. You know who is really good in the second half? Tom F’ing Brady.
All the angles we take and the studying we do as fans still fails to give us insight on what Belichick is going to do. I couldn’t tell you with certainty if the Patriots are going to come out and run the ball 30 times with Maroney or if they’re going to pass 30 times in the first half with Brady. You just, don’t, know. What we do know is that Tom Brady can beat you in two styles of football. He can beat you with the clock management, run the ball with a pass here and there type of game (see previous Patriot championships), or he can beat you with 5 guys spread out like it’s a video game.
You know what element people forget to add to their formulas for beating the Patriots? Luck. You need to play your best game of the year on offense, your best game of the year on defense, avoid any mistakes on special teams, and then hope for some luck. You need to hope that a ball slips out of Brady’s hands inside his own 20. You need to hope that Randy Moss drops a wide open pass on 3rd and 10. You need to hope that one of your corners gets hold of a tipped ball and runs it back for a touchdown. Basically, if you are Jacksonville, you need the 96 yard return of Jones-Drew and the two interceptions of Mathis, PLUS a great game from Garrard and the rest of the team to have an opportunity to win in the fourth quarter.
Problem is, Jacksonville might have spent all of their luck in the last game.
Final Score
Jacksonville 17
New England 41