The Sports Rumors

NFL Week 1 Picks vs The Spread

(First one is Thursday’s Game, from previous article.. Sunday’s Games are below)

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)

The most surprising team in the league takes on the defending Super Bowl Champs on Thursday night in what should be a great game to start off a season. This game is filled with plenty of star power; Reggie Bush, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees to name a few. Here’s what you need to know:

Offense: Though the Saints’ Drew Brees led the league in passing last year (even ahead of Manning), they couldn’t reach the Superbowl in a pitiful NFC. They have a balanced attack coming out of the backfield with Reggie Bush and Deuce Mccalister but the wide receivers are still a bit of an unknown, especially with the departure of Joe Horn. Rookie Marcus Colston had a surprisingly good season but his production dropped as more and more teams caught onto the rookie’s deep ball antics. The Colts have added that coveted third wide receiver to compliment the Harrison-Wayne duo. Harrison may be reaching the latter stages of his career but flipside of him is Reggie Wayne, who is emerging into a star. Joseph Addai is anticipated to have a breakout season. Throw in a solid third wide receiver in Anthony Gonzales and you have the makings of another 30ppg offense.

Defense: The Colts defense was terrible for most of last season. The run defense was among the worst in the league and that would scare you normally, considering the fact that the Saints pack a double RB combo. But the Saints defense isn’t much better. What does that mean? It means that the Colts will be putting up points, and putting up points fast. The Saints won’t be running the ball much if they’re down 14-0 in the first quarter and that’s when Dwight Freeney is also at his best.

Prediction: Colts Win Result: 41-10 Colts Victory

Spread: Colts cover Result: Colts covered.

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+4.5)

A 1pm matchup of two AFC North rivals. The Pittsburgh Steelers, led by new head coach Mike Tomlin, look to get back to their winning ways of previous years. Ben Rothlisberger also looks back to get on track after having an awful season last year, in which he led the league with 23 interceptions. The Cleveland Browns are in the rebuilding phase, and have been for as long as I can remember. Hyped up quarterback Brady Quinn will not be the starter; instead Charlie Frye will bring his inaccurate arm and lack of strength and try to lead the Browns to an early season upset in Cleveland.

Offense:

I have a lot of confidence in Ben Rothlisberger getting back to making the good, safe decisions that he did his first season in the league by checking down early and often and taking the 7 yard gain instead of throwing 20 yards down the field. It helps that Willie Parker will be shouldering a lot of the load coming out of the backfield. The new Steelers offense won’t be like that of previous years. It will feature multiple wide receiver sets one play, then back down to two tight end sets the next. Look for a lot of mixing of plays and a healthy balance between the run and the pass. Make no mistake about it though, the Steelers will try and open things up with the run first, and that is where Parker is so valuable to Big Ben’s success and comfort in the pocket. The Browns don’t have much to bring to the table with Quinn on the bench. Frye has made some good plays but has made more worse decisions. He isn’t accurate and can’t squeeze the ball into tight spots. Braylon Edwards has yet to step into the role of a true number one receiver. Kellen Winslow is the best offensive weapon that the Browns have. The acquisition of runningback Jamal Lewis may look good in theory but don’t expect this to be the Lewis of old. He’s an aging back and well know how runningbacks’ skill sets dwindle as they get closer to age 30. Well Lewis is 28 and his yards per carry have been below 4 for the past two seasons (3.4 and 3.6).

Defense:

As if Cleveland’s offense wasn’t already facing enough problems due to lack of talent, they now get to face a ferocious 3-4 style defense that the Steelers bring. Throw in the fact that Mike Tomlin is a defensive mastermind and you have the makings of a disasterous day for the Cleveland offense. Their only chance of staying in this ballgame past halftime is either their own defense making plays, or Lewis dominating the Steelers line. I don’t see either of the two scenarios happening. The Browns defense is not bad itself. They bring a 3-4 to the table as well. The Browns have a lot of young talent, particularly outside linebacker Wimbley. They have the talent to put on a good pass rush but with Parker running the way I predict him to, a pass rush won’t matter. The one advantage the Browns have is in the special teams.

Prediction:

This game will start off close, and that will last all but a few minutes. Pittsburgh is far superior on offense and has a veteran group of guys on defense. The Browns also won’t be able to move the ball and I’ll be surprised if they score more than one touchdown. All signs point to a big win for the Steelers, on their way to a good season.

Steelers Win

Spread: Steelers Cover

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New England Patriots (-6.5) @ New York Jets

This game is filled with storylines. The Belichick vs Mangini drama. Are the Patriots really going to be that good? Will Moss make the big plays he’s expected to? Will Thomas Jones prove to the Bears that he was the better runningback? How small of a leash is Chad Pennington on with Jets fans? It’s definitely a can’t miss game.

Offense:

Clearly, the advantage here goes to the Patriots. Superior quarterback, up and coming runningback (Lawrence Maroney) plus a veteran Corey Dillon) duo. Top notch receivers (Moss, Welker, Stallworth). A solid and experienced veteran group of guys protecting Brady. Doesn’t get much better than that. The Jets are no slouch either though. Don’t forget that this was the team that went 10-6 last year, without the presence of a dependable runningback. Chad Pennington is a very accurate quarterback, when given the time. They also have a veteran wideout in Laveranues Coles to go along with young stud Jerricho Cotchery, who had over 80 catches last year. I think if this game was in New England, the Pats would have the clearly dominant offense. But since they are playing in New York, which will be a psyched up crowd, I would give only a slight advantage to the Patriots.

Defense:

The Pats have the more experienced defense that’s seen it all. It also helps that they got playmaker corner Asante Samuel back with the team. This defense adjusts week to week and suffocates offenses, starting with the run game. This game will be determined on how well and quickly the Pats defense shuts down the Jets running game. The Jets defense is led by Jonathan Vilma and brings a variety of different packages as well. Go figure, Mangini learned a lot from Bellicheck. The Jets defense puts a lot of emphasis on plugging the gaps first and then bringing outside blitzes. The key for the Jets isn’t to necessarily shut down Lawrence Maroney; but to take away the short passing game of the Pats. If you take that away from Brady, you have a chance.

Prediction:

Given the fact that this game is being played in New York, and the fact that the Jets hate the Patriots more than the Patriots hate the Jets, I predict a defensive battle and a close game. I don’t think either team will score over 25 points. As long as the Jets stay patient and stick to the run, along with not letting the Pats jump ontop early, look for the Jets to have a chance in the fourth quarter. In two meetings last year, the Jets lost by a combined total of 10 points. I have the Pats winning, but not by more than a few… something in the 21-17 ballpark.

Spread: Patriots don’t cover.

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Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5)

I would love to break this game down and spit out 5 gazillion stats at you and stuff but it’s plain and simple; Chargers are going to win this game and they’re going to win it by a lot.

Offense:

There really is no comparison. L.T. is better than the entire Chicago offense combined. Throw in Antonio Gates and a solid offensive line plus a young, up and coming quarterback who knows what he’s doing and sprinkle a bit of Norv Turner’s offensive genius and you have the makings of an offense that will rival the Colts for the most explosive in the NFL. The Bears have Rex Grossman who is so unpredictable that it’s not even fun to make jokes about. I don’t have a lot of faith in Cedric Benson and think the Bears made a big mistake in letting Thomas Jones walk. Bernard Berrian is a game changing type of receiver with his electrifying speed but again, look who’s throwing him the ball.

Defense:

Here is where the teams are fairly even, though I still give a slight edge to the Chargers. Everyone knows about the Bears defense and Urlacher and Mike Brown and Tommy Harris. And of course everyone knows about Shawn Merriman, who I believe is going to be the defensive player this year and next year. The Chargers play a confusing and frustrating 3-4 defense that allows Merriman to get into the backfield early and often. Olshansky is a headache at defensive end and Luis Castillo had 7 sacks coming from the opposite end. In short, the Chargers defense puts lots of pressure on the quarterback and Rex Grossman is not good under pressure.

Prediction:

Don’t expect a close game. The Chargers will jump ahead early and never look back. 31-13 is the type of score I’m predicting.

Spread: Chargers Cover

*I’ll have the Baltimore-Cincinnati Monday Night Special out either late tonight or tomorrow.

(I can’t wait to see this awkward postgame moment)