29
Nov
2007
Thursday Night Football Preview
For the first time since 1990, two NFC teams with a record of 10-1 will be going up against each other in the regular season. Last time, it was the Giants vs. the Niners, a game which was an ugly slugfest to the finish. San Francisco managed to win 7-3, but it was New York who had the last laugh as they became Super Bowl Champions that season. Tonight’s game brings a clash of America’s team versus America’s quarterback. Brett Favre brings his young team, whose only loss was a week five touchdown defeat to division rival Chicago. The Packers have won their last 4 games by scoring at least 31 points in each contest and have given up only 15 points a game on average during a stretch of their last 5 games. An even more impressive stat is that they are 14-1 since last Thanksgiving. People, understand that they have had the best record in the past 365 days; that includes the Patriots and Colts. Point being; they’re hot right now. Dallas hasn’t been quiet either. They’ve put together incredible second halves in which they absolutely demolish their opponents. Tony Romo is playing at an elite level, one that Dallas fans have not seen since Troy Aikman in his prime. Terrell Owens is being the beast of a wideout that we all know he can be, when he’s not busy destroying a locker room of course. Marion Barber requires a minimum of three defenders to bring him down. And oh, don’t forget that their only loss has been to undefeated New England. Okay so we all know the big stats and hoopla about this game, like it hasn’t been hyped up enough. Let’s get down to the nitty gritty, see who has what advantages, and see what’s what.
Quarterbacks
Brett Favre: 3,356 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTS, 68.5% Completion Percentage, 101.5 QB Rating
Tony Romo: 3,043 yards, 29 TDs, 13 INTS, 66.2% Completion Percentage, 105.3 QB Rating
This looks to be an epic battle that deserves every bit of hype it has received so far. You’re talking about a battle between two generations. You’re looking at, arguably, one of the three best quarterbacks in the history of the game going against the young stud who’s playing better than everyone except Tom Brady this year. On the field, neither one of these two has any physical advantage. They both see everything, make the right reads, throw the ball into tight spots and make plays with their feet when needed. However, I give a slight, SLIGHT, edge to Favre on this one based on his experience in big games and the fact that Dallas’ secondary isn’t all that good.
Advantage: Green Bay
Runningbacks
Ryan Grant: 4.6 YPC, 494 Yards, 2 TDs, 0 Fumbles
Marion Barber: 4.9 YPC, 715 Yards, 7 TDs, 1 Fumble
The stats on this one may be deceiving and show that the comparision between the two is closer than it really is. But make no mistake about it, Marion Barber is the superior runningback and the Cowboys have the far superior run game. Not to mention, Barber splits carries with Julius Jones. The Packers lack of a running game was reason to doubt them early on, but to be fair, they have picked it up with the emergence of Grant as of late.
Advantage: Dallas
Wide Receivers
Donald Driver: 832 Yards, 13.2 Per Catch, 2 TDs
Greg Jennings: 625 Yards, 16.0 Per Catch, 9 TDs
James Jones: 594 Yards, 14.9 Per Catch, 2 TDs
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Terrell Owens: 1093 Yards, 17.1 Per Catch, 13 TDs
Patrick Crayton: 482 Yards, 14.6 Per Catch, 5 TDs
Sam Hurd: 177 Yards, 16.1 Per Catch, 1 TD
When people think about the receiver matchup, first thing that will come to mind is “Dallas has TO. They have the better wideouts.” But before you jump to that conclusion, realize that Donald Driver is only 261 yards off of TO’s pace and one less catch. Also, Greg Jennings is a much better deep threat and overall receiver than Patrick Crayton is. Jennings stretches the field much like Owens does for Dallas. James Jones is also a solid young wideout who makes big catches in big moments. Sam Hurd hasn’t made any impact thus far. So if you’re looking at the best wide receiver in the game, of course Dallas has the advantage. But as far as wide receivers as a group, Green Bay has more diversity and depth.
Advantage: Green Bay
Offensive Line:
Chad Clifton, Daryn Colledge, Scott Wells, Jason Spitz, Mark Tauscher
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Flozell Adams, Kyle Kosier, Andre Gurode, Leonard Davis, Marc Columbo
Green Bay is currently ranked number one as far as pass protection in the entire NFL. Their adjusted sack rate is 3.3% (this rate is composed of sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance). Considering how everyone KNOWS the Packers love to pass, this is very impressive. Their run protection is not very good; ranked 26th overall but that comes as no surprise considering how rarely they ran the first 6 games of the season. More importantly, the run protection stat is irrelevant because the Packers run in nickel situations. They set up three wideouts and spread defenses out, leading to nice draw plays or pitches. The Cowboys pass protection is ranked 8th in the league with an adjusted sack rate of 4.4%. They are amongst the top in run protection with a ranking of 7, gaining an average of 4.56 yards per carry. You have to figure that if you can pick up almost 5 yards per carry, on AVERAGE, things are going to be flowing pretty smoothly on offense.
Considering the styles of offense for both teams, I still give the advantage to Dallas. It’s a lot harder to stop a team with balanced running and passing than it is to stop a one dimensional team.
Advantage: Dallas
Tight Ends
Donald Lee: 39 Catches, 468 Yards, 12.0 Per Catch, 4 TDs
Jason Witten: 59 Catches, 750 Yards, 12.7 Per Catch, 6 TDs
There is no question here that Jason Witten is the better tight end. However, in the Green Bay passing system, Donald Lee is pretty darn good. Still, the Cowboys have the clear advantage here as tight ends usually have field days against the Packers linebackers.
Advantage: Dallas
Defensive Line
Dallas has the much better run defense as they give up less than 4 yards a carry to opposing runningbacks. Green Bay gives up slightly more than 4 (4.18 to be exact). The Cowboys have piled up 30 sacks thus far and the Packers 32. DeMarcus Ware has been a beast coming off the end but Aaron Kampman is no joke either. Ware plays in a 3-4 style defense which gives him the freedom to move around more like a linebacker than an end. Kampman plays a base 4-3, so he’s always going to be coming off the end. Still, Kampman has more sacks (11 to Ware’s 9) as well as only 6 less solo tackles than Ware. As great as Ware is, Kampman gets overlooked far too much because of who he plays for. (Okay damnit. I got busy at work and now it’s 4:30 so I’m running out of time to detail each position. Here is the summarized portion of the rest of the defense..) However, the secondary of the Cowboys gets scorched early and often. Roy Williams may be a solid hitter, but he has not matured into a consistent cover safety. If you watch him on every play, you’ll see that he takes an unnecessary number of risks. He bites on play action very hard and that’s why he gets burned at least once a game. Terrence Newman is a hard hitting, shut down corner but he can’t handle all three wide outs on his own. Green Bay brings Al Harris, a rough and tough physical corner who will put his fist in the grill of TO all night. I am really eager to watch that matchup and see if TO can stay composed and use his speed to shake Harris. Charles Woodson (game time decision) would be a huge help if he plays this game. I’d give the advantage, slightly, to the Packers when it comes to linebacking corps. They’re a solid young group of guys who bring hard hits and pressure on the quarterback, led by AJ Hawk.
D-Line Advantage: Dallas
Linebacker Advantage: Green Bay
Secondary Advantage: Green Bay
Special Teams: Green Bay
Prediction:
Dallas will get off to a slow start and Green Bay will jump ahead early. Dallas should catch up by halftime with the score being Green Bay 17-13. Green Bay will end up winning the game though in a high scoring affair, as their wide receivers and some guy named Brett Favre will be just too much.
FINAL SCORE:
GREEN BAY: 36
DALLAS: 27