21
Aug
2007
Future Bleak for Michael Vick
When this whole saga began, I was a believer of the “Rich people don’t serve time” theory. Well, apparently, I couldn’t have been more wrong about that. Michael Vick is in not just fighting a battle with Goodell to play in the league anymore; he’s fighting to stay out of prison.
News broke late last night that the other two co-defendants are also entering into a plea agreement. This is the worst possible scenario for Vick and his defense, although they had to expect it. Now it’s seemingly going to be three defendants blaming one defendant in a tell-all situation. We still don’t know what the specific evidence is and there is always a chance that something bizarre happens and Vick walks; but that’s a far, far stretch.
Here’s what I know and will share with you. These are federal charges, this is a federal case. So if Vick is sentenced to prison, there is no parole. You have to serve a minimum of 85% of your sentence. It doesn’t matter if you help the feds or not, 85% is the minimum you serve. If Vick had ratted out the other three back in April or May, he would be looking at about 6 months (not taking the 85% into consideration). Now he has two options:
a) Enter a plea bargain and admit to wrongdoing.
b) Take the case to trial with three co-defendants willing to testify against him.
Under option “a”, Vick would be looking at anywhere from a year to two years in prison. If he took the case to trial and went with option “b”, Vick would be looking at serving a minimum of two years. Most likely, it’d be in the ball park of 2 and a half to three years. Now you can do the math and calculate what is 85% of each to get the minimum he’d serve under each scenario but the fact of the matter is, he’s going to jail for a long time if he goes to trial and loses.
There is always the chance that it can go to trial and you have one or two jurors who won’t budge and feel Vick is innocent. But again, the chances of that are extremely slim. Throw in the fact that the judge of this case is a no nonsense kind of guy and you have the makings of a potential disaster for the defense.
I thought that someway, somehow, Vick would escape this dilemma of immense proportions the way he so many times escaped the grasp of 325 pound linemen. But now, the longer this thing goes on, the more it looks like Vick isn’t just fighting to play another snap; he’s fighting for his freedom.